Welcome to DecisionLink.
This is a limited, experimental version of the model designed to let you manipulate the scenarios yourself. While the model can be applied to any legislative district, we pre-selected two different swing seat options. Swing seats are designated as “toss-ups” as neither party’s performance is dominant. The model is calculating win probability for the general election only.
Option one is a swing House seat located in the central Florida region. While Republicans have a voter registration advantage, the seat is currently held by a Democrat and President Obama narrowly carried it.
Option two is a swing to lean Republican Senate seat located along the I4 corridor. Hispanics make up almost 20% of the voting age population and voter registration is at near parity between the two parties. However, President Obama lost this seat in 2012 with 47% of the vote while Governor Scott carried it in 2010 with 52% of the vote.
- First select seat option swing one or two
- Select the party to which your candidate belongs
- Leave “1” entered for the General Election
- Select “1” if your candidate is an incumbent, “0” if not
- Enter the amounts of money raised by your candidate and the opponent
- Click enter
Based on your selections and the unique characteristics of each district, the model generates a score between 0 and 1. The closer the score is to 1, the higher the chance of winning. Conversely, the closer the score is to 0, the more likely a loss.
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