Welcome to DecisionLink.

This is a limited, experimental version of the model designed to let you manipulate the scenarios yourself. While the model can be applied to any legislative district, we pre-selected two different swing seat options. Swing seats are designated as “toss-ups” as neither party’s performance is dominant. The model is calculating win probability for the general election only.

Option one is a swing House seat located in the central Florida region. While Republicans have a voter registration advantage, the seat is currently held by a Democrat and President Obama narrowly carried it.

Option two is a swing to lean Republican Senate seat located along the I4 corridor. Hispanics make up almost 20% of the voting age population and voter registration is at near parity between the two parties. However, President Obama lost this seat in 2012 with 47% of the vote while Governor Scott carried it in 2010 with 52% of the vote. 

Model instructions:

  1. First select seat option swing one or two
  2. Select the party to which your candidate belongs
  3. Leave  “1” entered for the General Election
  4. Select “1” if your candidate is an incumbent, “0” if not
  5. Enter the amounts of money raised by your candidate and the opponent
  6. Click enter

Based on your selections and the unique characteristics of each district, the model generates a score between 0 and 1. The closer the score is to 1, the higher the chance of winning. Conversely, the closer the score is to 0, the more likely a loss.

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